In 1814 de
Laplace described what would be known as “The demon of Laplace”. He stated that
if one knew the exact state of every object in the universe one would be able
to predict the exact future. Then for about 150 years scientist in all kinds of
different fields like meteorology, physics, economy etc tried to predict
weather, economical development and other dynamic systems. According to this
theory one could skip small details since the bigger picture would overrule any
small effects very small initial differences would have on the end result.
Then in
1963 Edward Lorenz described what he called “Deterministic Nonperiodic Flows”.
Sounds booooring but was made known to most people as “The Butterfly-effect”.
Not least by Jeff Goldblums character Dr. Ian Malcolm in the film Jurassic
Park. In science it is referred to as Chaos theory today. This effectively killed
all notions of small details having no effect on the end result. This happened about
50 years ago and has radically changed the way science works.
Still in
each and every project most people, and particularly the stakeholders, still
think that we can make a plan, predict everything and that will be gospel. We
are also expected to do this plan with very limited time and resources. Then when
some little detail shows up that affects the project they act surprised, want
to investigate responsibility and escalate to the big chiefs why we so
capitally failed in predicting this little detail. The “inquisition” brings out
all their hidden toys and starts the fires. Someone has to be condemned for
this utter lack of predicting everything and we have to declare our total
incompetence as Galileo was forced to stand trial for the Inquisitor Maculani
for his heretic teachings.
So my
question is, when will there be an understanding that project managers cannot
predict every little detail in a sequence of events involving a lot of people
for the next months or years? No one expect a weather forecast to be exact for
the next 6 months or so, everyone knows we cannot predict the currency rates in
detail for the next year, so how are project managers expected to have this
magical foreseeing that no one else has? Is there a secret club with a lot of
old people in pointy hats and dark rituals one has to go through to be elevated
to some higher form of being?
